Price Cannibalisation in 2026: Managing Revenue Risk in Pay-As-Produced PPAs

Synopsis

High solar and wind penetration in early 2026 is driving wholesale prices to zero or negative during peak generation periods, creating substantial revenue risks for developers with pay-as-produced PPAs. This session explores the drivers and financial impact of price cannibalisation, and how developers can adapt their commercial strategies to protect project returns.

• How high renewable penetration during peak generation periods is driving zero and negative wholesale prices, and the impact on developer revenues under pay-as-produced PPAs
• Analysing frequency and duration of price collapse events in 2026, identifying vulnerable generation profiles, and assessing the financial exposure for solar and wind projects
• Alternative contract structures including baseload PPAs, shaped products, battery co-location, curtailment clauses, and hybrid revenue models to mitigate cannibalisation risk and secure bankable returns